Good morning everyone,

We’ve now got 30 days until Trump becomes President again. However, plenty of heat is already being dished in what is normally a lame duck political winter.

The Supreme Court is now deciding the fate of TikTok, with Oral Arguments set for January 10th. After two failures, House Majority Leader Mike Johnson garnered support from other congressional leaders to pass a stopgap funding bill through March 2025. Harris may be making preparations not only for a governor run in 2026, but a presidential run in 2028.

Let’s dive in!

• TikTok Fate Faces SCOTUS

• Stop Gap Funding Bill Passes Congressional Approval

• Harris 2028?

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Tick-Tock

_{By: Atlas}

One of the world’s most popular social media platforms, TikTok, is now having it’s fate decided by 9 judges. The Supreme Court agreed last week to hear TikTok's challenge to a law that could force its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell or face a U.S. ban. Set for January 10, 2025, the oral arguments will tackle thorny questions about national security, free speech rights, and the government's power to regulate foreign-owned platforms.

The story stems from President Biden's signing of PAFACA, which started a 270-day countdown clock for ByteDance to divest from TikTok or shut down U.S. operations. With a reported 170 million Americans scrolling through their For You pages daily, the stakes couldn't be higher for a platform that's become woven into the fabric of American digital life.

The Constitutional Question

TikTok's legal team isn't pulling punches. They're challenging the law as a First Amendment violation, pointing out how it singles out their platform while leaving other apps untouched. Their argument boils down to this: even if Congress worries about foreign influence, you can't just ban a major speech platform outright.

The Justice Department sees it differently. They insist this isn't about censoring content – it's about protecting American data from foreign adversaries. The D.C. Circuit Court bought this argument, but now the Supreme Court will have its say, dedicating two full hours to parse through these complex issues.

Economic Impact and Business Concerns

The numbers paint a stark picture. Court filings show creators and small businesses staring down potential losses of $1.3 billion in just one month if TikTok goes dark. That breaks down to $1 billion in marketing spend and $300 million in creator earnings – real money staked for the hundreds of thousands of Americans who depend on it for a living. TikTok warns that even a brief shutdown could cost them a third of their U.S. users. Anyone familiar with social media knows how devastating that kind of exodus can be – platforms live and die by their user base, and rebounds from major drops rarely happen.

Political Dynamics and International Relations

The political landscape adds another layer of intrigue. Donald Trump, who tried to ban TikTok during his first term, now speaks warmly of the platform as he prepares to retake office on January 20. This shift comes just as the January 19 deadline looms, creating uncertainty about how the incoming administration might handle the situation. Meanwhile, figures like Senator Marco Rubio maintain their hardline stance, warning about Chinese Communist Party influence.

The debate has become a flashpoint in the broader conversation about technology, security, and America's relationship with China.

Looking Ahead: Implications and Timeline

As lawyers rush to file briefs by December 27, the Supreme Court faces pressure to untangle these complex issues before the January deadline hits.

Their decision won't just determine TikTok's fate – it'll set precedents for how America handles foreign technology companies operating on U.S. soil. The ruling could reshape how governments approach social media regulation, balancing national security concerns against constitutional protections in an increasingly connected world.

At its core, this case asks fundamental questions about how to protect American interests without stifling the very freedoms that define how far the law can go. As January 10 approaches, the tech industry, content creators, and hundreds of millions of users wait to see how the Supreme Court will navigate these uncharted waters at the intersection of national security, free speech, and the digital economy.

Third Time Charm

_{By: Atlas}

In what feels like a Congressional Groundhog Day, Congress once again waited until the last minute to pass a stopgap spending bill that avoids a government shutdown. The measure, shepherded through by House Speaker Mike Johnson, funds federal operations through March 14, 2025, and includes billions of dollars for disaster aid and agricultural assistance. The bill passed with a decisive 366-34 vote in the House before moving to the Senate for final approval.

The legislation's journey to passage was anything but smooth, marked by frenetic negotiations, and influence from President-elect Donald Trump and his close ally, billionaire Elon Musk. The final package emerged as Johnson's third attempt to fulfill one of Congress's most basic functions – keeping the government open.

Trump's Influence and the Debt Ceiling Drama

The most contentious aspect of the negotiations centered around Trump's eleventh-hour demand to include a debt ceiling increase in the package. The president-elect, posting from Mar-a-Lago, insisted that Congress either extend the debt ceiling to 2029 or face a shutdown, declaring "If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now."

However, Johnson ultimately had to work around Trump's demands, recognizing that there weren't enough votes within the GOP majority to pass any package that included a debt ceiling increase. Instead, Republicans made a handshake agreement to address the debt limit as part of their tax and border packages in the new year, promising to cut $2.5 trillion in spending over ten years in exchange for raising the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion.

The Musk Factor

One of the most surprising elements of the negotiations was the prominent role played by Elon Musk, who is set to head the incoming administration's new Department of Government Efficiency. Musk's opposition to Johnson's initial bipartisan compromise helped sink that proposal before it reached the floor. His influence grew so significant that some Republicans even floated his name as a potential Speaker of the House – a very rare suggestion for someone who isn't a member of Congress.

The final bill's passage prompted Johnson to reveal that he had spoken with Musk about the "extraordinary challenges" of the Speaker's job, even joking about offering him the gavel. This exchange highlighted Musk's growing influence within Republican circles and his emerging role in shaping federal policy.

What's in the Package

The approved 118-page legislation includes several key provisions:

Government funding at current levels through March 14, 2025 $100 billion in disaster aid for areas affected by recent hurricanes $10 billion in agricultural assistance to farmers A one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill Funding for FEMA's disaster relief fund and the Small Business Administration's disaster loan program Political Implications

The bill's passage revealed the complex dynamics of the incoming Republican-controlled government. Despite having secured control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, Republicans still needed a bevy of Democratic support to pass the basic government funding measures. This dependency on Democratic votes raises questions about how the GOP will manage more ambitious legislative priorities in the coming year.

For Speaker Johnson, the victory in averting a shutdown came with potential political costs. Thirty-four Republicans voted against his final proposal, and some conservative members are now questioning their support for his leadership ahead of the January 3 Speaker election. Rep. Andy Harris, chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, publicly declared himself "undecided" on House leadership for the upcoming Congress.

Looking Ahead

The passage of this stopgap measure sets up another funding deadline in March 2025, when the new Republican-controlled Congress will need to address government funding again. The handshake agreement on the debt ceiling also looms large, as it will test the GOP's ability to deliver on promises of spending cuts while maintaining essential government operations.

The episode demonstrated both the power and limitations of Trump's influence over congressional Republicans. While his intervention altered the negotiations, his core demand for a debt ceiling increase ultimately went unmet. That dynamic could stick, prompting a preview of what’s to come. The short-form explanation: The ambitious agenda may not always align with congressional realities.

The successful passage of the spending bill marks the end of a tumultuous legislative year and sets the stage for monumental policy battles in 2025 (i.e. DOGE). With Republicans preparing to take full control of all three branches of the government, the pressure to deliver on campaign promises while making sure government functions don’t break will only intensify. The delicate balance between ideological goals and practical governance, already evident in this funding fight, will likely continue to shape congressional dynamics in the months ahead.

Harris 2028?

_{By: Ian Hines, Contributor & Intern for Atlas}

The year is 1962. Only two years after his defeat in the 1960 Presidential election, to John F. Kennedy, former Vice President Richard Nixon ran for Governor of California, being defeated by Democrat Pat Brown. On election night, Nixon gave an infamous press conference, stating "you won't have Nixon to kick around anymore, because gentlemen, this is my last press conference." He would go on to become the 37th President six years later.

As the world already knows, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris was defeated on November 5th, 2024 by President-elect Donald Trump. Could there soon be a Governor Harris?

According to individuals within the Harris circle, the Vice President is keeping her options open and will discuss them with her family over the holiday season, including a hypothetical gubernatorial run. Most defeated Presidential candidates tend to quietly step back from politics, leaving room for new blood to take on their parties' mantle in the next election. However, Vice President Harris did not have a normal Presidential run. She was thrust into the nomination with barely 100 days until the election.

The current Governor of California, Gavin Newsom (and frequently discussed 2028 candidate), is term-limited in 2026, setting up an open field. According to polling from UCLA Berkeley and The Los Angeles Times, 72% of Democrats in the Golden State would support Kamala Harris' hypothetical gubernatorial run. A total of 46% of registered voters in the state would back the Vice President running for the CA Governor job.

Harris has already served as Attorney General and Senator for the state, serving a decade as a statewide official, but is that what Democrats want? On the one hand, it would remove her from the map as a 2028 Presidential contender, as the campaign season would begin barely a few months after she is sworn in as Governor. Presidential hopefuls would likely enjoy seeing her removed from contention, but California Democrats may lose their own opportunities for higher office. Representative Katie Porter, leaving office in January, stated that Harris entering the gubernatorial race would have a "clearing effect."

It is also worth noting that Harris' performance in California against President-elect Trump was the weakest for a Democrat in twenty years, only winning the state by twenty points — ten points less than usual for a Democratic candidate. The polling may be in her favor in hypotheticals, but will Californians accept a defeated Presidential contender?

It likely won't be until late 2025 that the Vice President announces what's next, and the only definitive right now is that she will be certifying Donald Trump's victory in January.

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