Good morning everyone,

Hey look at that - We’re back to a consistent rhythm of giving you top tier political breakdowns. More consistency like this and I’m sure my ex-wife will take me back!

In today’s edition: Irrespective of where you land on the political spectrum, one thing was clear Thursday night - Joe Biden had a horrible performance. The Supreme Court hands out wins and losses to both sides of the political spectrum, Julian Assange is now a free man thanks to a deal struck by the DOJ, and Trump receives a noticeable bump in pre-debate polls as shown by RealClearPolitics.

• Presidential Debate Breakdown

• SCOTUS Decisions

• Assange Free

• Pre-Debate National Polling

Presidential Debate Breakdown

July 28th, 2024 - The first presidential debate of the 2024 election season between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump took place Thursday night at CNN's Atlanta studio. This highly anticipated event marked the first time the two candidates shared a stage since their last encounter in 2020. The debate, moderated by CNN anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, was conducted without a live audience and featured a format allowing the moderators to mute candidates' microphones when it was not their turn to speak.

One consensus was formed from every political shade of the political spectrum last night. Joe Biden delivered a poor performance. There were reasons given by the White House (he had a cold) and reasons given by a variety of political pundits (he was off medication, poor planning etc.). Regardless of how it was painted after the fact, analysts on all sides painted it as an incredibly negative night for the 46th president. To draw a simple parallel, analyzing the behavior and language from one of his State of The Union (SOTU) addresses provides a completely different picture of Biden’s competence and capabilities. As of Friday morning, MSNBC polled their online audience. Out of the roughly 7,000 respondents, only 7% believed Joe Biden won the debate.

Economy and Inflation:

Trump criticized Biden's economic policies, blaming them for inflation and economic instability. He claimed that under his administration, the U.S. had the "greatest economy in history.” Biden defended his record, highlighting job creation and efforts to tackle inflation, but struggled to deliver his points effectively, often appearing hesitant and unclear.

Immigration:

Immigration was a contentious topic, with Trump accusing Biden of allowing millions of criminals into the country. Biden countered by pointing to a 40% reduction in illegal border crossings following new policies.

Abortion and Reproductive Rights:

On abortion, Biden emphasized his support for reproductive rights, while Trump reiterated his stance of leaving it up to the states. Although Trump appeared to many on both sides of the political aisle as more on key in sticking to the message at hand, the notice went far more towards Biden for his noticeable lack of comprehension regarding what was being discussed.

Foreign Policy and National Security:

The candidates clashed on foreign policy, with Biden criticizing Trump's handling of international relations and his connections to Russia. Trump, in turn, accused Biden of weakening America's global standing.

Age and Fitness for Office:

Both candidates' ages were a focal point. Biden, at 81, aimed to dispel concerns about his age but inadvertently made it a central issue with his shaky performance. Trump, at 78, appeared more composed, yet his rhetoric remained a clear sticking point of division between parties.

Debate Dynamics and Moderation

The debate format, which allowed for microphone muting, helped maintain order compared to previous debates. However, the lenient moderation was criticized by some for allowing Trump to redirect vulnerabilities towards Biden without making it clear that the candidates should stick to the issue at hand.

SCOTUS Decisions

July 28th, 2024 - The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) made several landmark decisions in the past few days. These rulings addressed a wide range of issues, from presidential immunity and abortion access to regulatory authority and homelessness.

Presidential Immunity and Jan. 6 Obstruction Charges

One of the most consequential cases was Trump v. United States, where the Court was set to decide whether former President Donald Trump is immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken while in office. The justices appeared divided, with some openness to limited immunity for official acts. This decision, expected to set a new standard for presidential power, remains pending and could significantly impact Trump's legal battles and the broader understanding of executive authority in Fischer v. United States, the Court ruled that federal prosecutors overstepped by using a broad interpretation of an obstruction law to charge a Capitol rioter. The 6-3 decision, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, narrowed the application of the law to cases involving the destruction of physical evidence. This ruling could lead to the dismissal of charges against many Jan. 6 defendants and affect the federal case against Trump.

Emergency Abortion

In Moyle v. United States, the Court temporarily allowed emergency abortions in Idaho, ruling that the state's near-total abortion ban must yield to federal law requiring emergency medical treatment. The 6-3 decision reinstated a lower court's ruling, permitting hospitals to perform abortions when necessary to stabilize the health of the mother. This case marks the first significant challenge to state-level abortion restrictions post-Roe v. Wade.

Regulatory Authority and Chevron Doctrine

The Court overturned the 40-year-old Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council precedent, which had allowed federal agencies broad discretion in interpreting ambiguous laws. The 6-3 ruling, led by Chief Justice Roberts, emphasized that courts must independently interpret statutes without deferring to agency expertise. This decision is expected to curtail the power of federal regulators significantly, impacting various sectors, including environmental and health regulations.

Homelessness and Public Space

In a landmark decision, the Court upheld an Oregon city's ban on homeless individuals sleeping outdoors. The 6-3 ruling overturned a lower court's decision that such bans constituted cruel and unusual punishment. The majority opinion argued that cities need the authority to manage public spaces and encourage the homeless to seek shelter. This decision is likely to influence homelessness policies across the United States, particularly in areas with high rates of homelessness.

Social Media Regulation and Free Speech

The Court also addressed the regulation of social media platforms. In Murthy v. Missouri, the justices ruled that state laws restricting how social media companies moderate content do not violate the First Amendment. The decision upheld the Biden administration's ability to coordinate with social media companies about how alleged misinformation can be handled, with the majority opinion dismissing the case on the grounds of lack of standing.

Environmental Protection

Lastly, the Court temporarily blocked the Biden administration's "good neighbor" plan aimed at reducing cross-state air pollution. The 5-4 decision halted the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) initiative, which sought to curb ozone pollution affecting downwind states.

Assange Free

June 27, 2024 - Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has been released from a highly secure British prison and returned to Australia after striking a plea deal yesterday with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ). This agreement marks the end of a prolonged legal battle that began over a decade ago when WikiLeaks published classified U.S. military and diplomatic documents.

The 52 year old pled guilty to one charge of conspiring to obtain and disclose classified U.S. national defense documents. The charge carried a sentence of 62 months, equivalent to the time he has already served in the UK. The plea deal had taken place in the U.S. District Court located in the Northern Mariana Islands, chosen due to its proximity to Australia and Assange's reluctance to travel to the continental U.S.

Following the court's acceptance of his guilty plea, Assange was released from Belmarsh Prison and flown to Canberra, Australia. His release was met with mixed reactions. Supporters, including his wife Stella Assange, expressed relief and joy, while critics, such as former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, argued that the deal undermines national security.

Press freedom organizations welcomed Assange's release but voiced concerns about the implications of prosecuting journalists under the Espionage Act. They emphasized the need for stronger protections for journalists who publish classified information in the public interest.

The plea deal reflects the complexities of balancing national security concerns with press freedom. The U.S. government's decision to pursue a single charge and allow for Assange's immediate release indicates a compromise aimed at resolving several legal battles at once. As Assange re-enters public life, the broader implications of his case for journalism and transparency will continue to be a subject of intense debate.

Pre-Debate National Polling

June 27, 2024 - As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer, recent polling data reveals a highly competitive race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, released on June 18, 2024, shows both candidates tied at 49% among likely voters, reflecting a shift from late May when Biden held a slight lead over Trump. However, the Real Clear Politics aggregate of polls has Trump leading by half a point as of June 18th 2024.

Polling Breakdown

As of June 27, 2024, the RCP average showed Trump leading Biden by a somewhat narrow margin. Specifically, Trump had 46.6% support compared to Biden's 45.1%, giving Trump a 1.5-point lead. This slim margin underscores the competitive nature of the race, with both candidates vying for the support of undecided voters. However, this is a noticeable bump from the previous weeks’ RCP reporting as Trump only had 0.6 point advantage.

We will continue to keep you updated, as the debate will surely see shifting tides on the state and national level for the weeks and months to come.

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