(A)Political - October 4th

Good morning everyone,

Busy week at the Capitol. Let’s get into it! Keep in mind we have a special release coming very soon!

The US Senate failed to reach a funding deal, ending hopes of a quick shutdown. North Carolina Governor signs ‘Iryna’s Law’ into effect, limits cashless bail and brings back the death penalty. Trump warns Bibi to stop the bombing in Gaza as Hamas has partially accepted a peace plan.

• US Senate Fails To Reach Agreement, Gov. Shutdown Continues

• North Carolina Governor Signs ‘Iryna’s Law’

• Trump To Bibi: Stop The Bombing in Gaza

US Senate Fails To Reach Agreement, Gov. Shutdown Continues

_{By: Atlas}

The Senate adjourned without an agreement on a stopgap funding measure after a series of failed votes, leaving the federal government partially shuttered and major programs operating under contingency plans. Leaders in both parties said they remain open to talks, but neither side committed to a new framework or timeline. The chamber is expected to reconvene to attempt additional votes, while the House signaled it would not move first on fresh legislation. The immediate effect is that federal workers remain furloughed or working without pay, with agencies relying on previously issued shutdown guidance.

Where negotiations broke down

Talks stalled over the scope of a short-term continuing resolution and whether it should include health-care provisions that Democrats have insisted on addressing before government operations resume. The dispute centers on extending enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits beyond their scheduled expiration, as well as reversing or modifying Medicaid-related policy changes enacted earlier in the year. Republicans argued those items are unrelated to a clean stopgap designed to keep funding at current levels for several weeks, and said any policy discussions could occur only after the government reopens. Democrats countered that allowing the subsidies to lapse would immediately affect premiums and that a shutdown is the only leverage remaining to secure action.

Floor discussions and leadership statements reflected that divide. Republican leaders emphasized moving a short-term bill without add-ons and accused Democrats of conditioning basic operations on unrelated demands. Democratic leaders framed the standoff as a dispute over the affordability of health insurance for millions of enrollees and said they would not provide the votes needed to advance a stopgap that does not address the issue. Attempts to split the difference — including exploring a one-year extension or a defined negotiation path — did not produce a public commitment from either side.

The votes and the procedural status

Multiple test votes failed to clear the 60-vote threshold needed to advance competing measures under Senate rules. A Republican-backed continuing resolution that mirrors the House-passed bill drew some cross-party support but fell short of cloture. A Democratic alternative that paired short-term funding with health-care provisions also failed on a largely party-line vote. The results solidified caucus positions: a small number of senators crossed over on the Republican proposal, one Republican opposed on fiscal grounds, and attendance variances did not change the overall arithmetic.

With cloture not invoked on either vehicle, there is no live legislative vehicle positioned for immediate passage. Leadership retains procedural options, including filing new cloture motions on revised text, taking up an unrelated bill and substituting funding language, or waiting for a bipartisan group to produce a narrow compromise that can attract 60 votes. For now, the Senate is in a holding pattern while informal talks continue among rank-and-file members who have been exploring limited extensions tied to a commitment to negotiate health-care items on a set schedule.

Positions from both parties

Republican leadership has maintained that the House-passed stopgap is the only viable basis for reopening the government quickly. They have said publicly they will discuss health-care policy afterward, but will not pre-commit to outcomes on premium tax credits or Medicaid funding. They also point to the need to avoid setting a precedent of linking time-sensitive funding to broader policy changes, noting that a clean stopgap typically carries few or no riders.

Democrats insist that any temporary spending bill include a solution for expiring marketplace subsidies and address the effects of earlier Medicaid changes. They argue that open enrollment calendars and insurer pricing timelines make delay impractical, and that the Senate’s 60-vote requirement gives them a legitimate say even while in the minority. Democratic leaders have encouraged bipartisan conversations, but say those talks must yield concrete language rather than general assurances.

A separate crosscurrent involves nominations and other Senate business. Some Republicans have urged decoupling nominations from the funding impasse; others prefer to keep attention fixed on appropriations until an agreement emerges. Democratic leaders have focused floor time on funding and messaging votes, signaling that other items will remain secondary until the shutdown is resolved.

Operational impacts and agency posture

As the impasse continues, federal agencies are executing their contingency plans. “Excepted” personnel — such as air traffic controllers, certain law enforcement officers, and other critical staff — are working without pay, while “non-excepted” employees are furloughed. Contractors are subject to the terms of their agreements and agency funding status, resulting in varied impacts across programs. Grant-making, new awards, and discretionary rulemaking are largely paused unless funded by fees or prior-year appropriations. Programs with mandatory funding, such as Social Security and Medicare benefit payments, continue, though some customer-service functions may be limited.

Congressional support offices and oversight functions remain active to the extent they draw from funds not directly affected by the lapse or are designated as essential. The Office of Management and Budget continues to coordinate agency guidance, and inspectors general have authority to continue certain activities related to health and safety or the protection of property. If the lapse endures, agencies will update operating status notices and recall plans as needed to prevent damage to assets or to meet statutory deadlines.

What could shift the stalemate

Several developments could change the legislative dynamics. First, a narrow compromise could emerge from bipartisan negotiators that extends current funding for a short period and pairs it with a defined process or timeline for considering health-care provisions, without binding the outcome. Second, external deadlines — including open enrollment dates for marketplace plans and expiring authorizations — could force inclusion of specific items to avoid immediate disruptions. Third, a change in House posture could occur if senators agree on a different duration or scope, though House leaders have said they intend to wait for Senate action.

Procedurally, the Senate could also take up a different vehicle, such as a defense or veterans bill, and use it as a shell for a continuing resolution, a tactic frequently employed to speed consideration. Any agreement that includes policy provisions will require careful drafting to survive points of order and to secure the necessary votes. Conversely, if leaders conclude that no bipartisan package can reach 60 votes, they could explore steps that adjust the chamber’s schedule or seek to increase political pressure; however, such moves do not change the underlying vote counts.

Outlook

The Senate remains without an agreement following repeated failed cloture votes on competing stopgap bills. The substantive dispute is clear: whether short-term funding should proceed without policy changes, or whether it must include health-care provisions tied to expiring marketplace subsidies and Medicaid. Until that question is resolved, the chamber lacks the votes to advance either party’s preferred approach. Agencies continue operating under shutdown protocols; affected employees and contractors face growing uncertainty; and lawmakers are likely to test additional vehicles in the days ahead. The pathway to reopening runs through a compromise that can secure 60 votes — either by limiting the scope of the stopgap to funding only, or by pairing it with a narrowly tailored health-care arrangement that both sides can accept for the duration of a temporary extension.

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