Good morning everyone,

Good morning, and welcome to (A)Political. We're finally starting to crystallize what a 2nd Trump presidency will look like with the changes that have taken place in recent weeks, along with the political environment taking a different tone. There's a lot to get into!

Threats and bomb scares are now being given to multiple Cabinet nominees for President elect Trump's administration. A series of coordinated bomb threats and swatting incidents have given high profile appointees like Pete Hegseth and Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

The existence of Trump and his open love tariffs is causing seismic shifts in shipping from China prior to his inauguration in January. Logistical difficulties and outside pressure from China will be greeting Trump prior to his inauguration.

In a significant diplomatic breakthrough, President Joe Biden announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, marking the end of nearly a year of intense conflict along the Israel-Lebanon border. The truce took effect on November 27, 2024. The agreement, achieved in the final months of Biden's presidency, offers hope for resolution to a conflict that has claimed over 3,700 Lebanese lives, displaced more than a million people, and caused an estimated $8.5 billion in economic damage to Lebanon.

Lastly, we have some awesome merch coming out soon! Keep an eye out for an email for when it comes out and the exclusive drop we have!

Lets get into it!

• Hegseth & other Trump nominees are now getting serious threats

• Global trade is in the midst of serious rearrangement with Trump coming back in office

• Biden sues for peace between Israel and Hezbollah

Bomb Scares Aren't Scaring

_{By: Arthur Lindh, Political Analyst & Contributor for Atlas}

Recent bomb threats and swatting episodes aimed at multiple Cabinet nominees of President-elect Donald Trump have raised concerns on the condition of political debate and security in the United States. The events that transpired between the evening of November 26 and the morning of November 27 highlight the volatile atmosphere surrounding Trump's return to the presidency and the operations of his transition team.

The threats were directed against a varied array of Trump's administration appointees, including the Department of Labor to the Pentagon. The incidents comprised bomb threats and swatting—fabricated emergency reports intended to elicit law enforcement reactions. All threats were assessed as non-credible, and no explosives were located at any of the targeted sites. Nonetheless, their prevalence signifies a concerning trend of employing intimidation against political figures.

Among the high-profile individuals targeted were:

Elise Stefanik, nominee for UN Ambassador, who faced a bomb threat at her Saratoga County home.

Lee Zeldin, EPA head nominee, whose residence was threatened with a pipe bomb alongside a pro-Palestinian message.

Matt Gaetz, initially tapped for Attorney General, reported threats at his Florida residence. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, nominee for Labor Secretary, faced a similar bomb threat in Oregon.

Pete Hegseth, chosen to lead the Pentagon, was also among the targets. Howard Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce nominee, received a terrorist bomb threat.

Reports suggest additional members of Trump’s team, including Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff pick) and Pam Bondi (Attorney General replacement nominee), may also have been targeted. These incidents have raised alarms about the security of political appointees during a critical transition period.

Law enforcement agencies, including the FBI, promptly addressed these incidents. Although preliminary investigations revealed no explosives or physical threats, authorities continue to exercise vigilance. The FBI underscored its dedication to meticulously researching threats and asked the public to stay vigilant.

The Biden administration categorically denounced the threats. President Biden received a briefing on the situation, and the White House issued a statement reiterating its opposition to political violence. Trump's transition team, through spokesman Karoline Leavitt, condemned the threats as "violent, un-American" and praised the prompt action taken by law enforcement. This series of threats is not an isolated incident. Political violence has emerged as a growing worry in recent years, intensified by incidents such as the January 6 Capitol riot. A 2023 Reuters investigation recorded more than 200 occurrences of political violence in the U.S. following 2021. Significantly, Trump was the subject of two assassination attempts in early 2024, indicating increased dangers for public leaders.

The timing of these threats, coinciding with Trump's announcement of significant Cabinet members, introduces an additional element of complexity. Although the threats lacked physical credibility, their psychological and political ramifications are significant. Political observers indicate that these instances may exacerbate partisan divisions, prompting both factions to advocate for a decrease in incendiary discourse.

The targeting of several Cabinet nominees underscores the pressing necessity to reassess security measures for political officials. Transition periods, particularly during controversial administrations, necessitate strong security frameworks. Bipartisan denunciation of the threats may present a unique opportunity for discourse on mitigating political violence. Nonetheless, the episodes also illustrate the polarized condition of American politics. Despite public denunciations from political leaders of both parties, the increasing normalization of threats and intimidation directed at public officials continues to pose a substantial concern. Advocacy organizations and political analysts underscore the necessity of cultivating a political environment in which conflicts are resolved without violence.

Anticipating the Future

As Trump anticipates his return to the White House, these threats underscore the security and political issues confronting his government. Improved cooperation between local and federal law enforcement organizations will be essential to safeguard political leaders. Furthermore, tackling the root causes of political animosity—via bipartisan initiatives, public education, or policy reforms—continues to be an essential responsibility for legislators. Although the bomb threats did not provide an immediate risk, their symbolic significance reverberates in a profoundly polarized nation. They underscore the vulnerability of democratic norms and the urgent necessity to restore trust and civility in American political discourse.

Global Trade in a Scramble

_{By: Atlas}

President-elect Trump's announcement of impending tariffs has set off a familiar scramble in global trade. Major U.S. importers are racing to frontload shipments before his planned January 20 implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, along with an additional 10% on Chinese goods. Barclays analyst Pooja Sriram predicts this rush will significantly widen the trade deficit as companies stockpile inventory through early 2025. The pattern mirrors 2018's trade dynamics, but with potentially more severe implications given the broader scope of targeted countries.

Tech Giants Lead the Charge

The response from major technology companies has been particularly aggressive. Microsoft, HP, and Dell are leading a surge in component orders, creating ripple effects throughout Asian supply chains. Chinese manufacturers report a significant uptick in U.S. orders, with Shenzhen Lingke Technology's CEO Wu Zhiqiang noting that American clients are rushing to "lock in as many profits as possible" before new tariffs take effect. This surge in tech sector activity suggests companies are treating Trump's threats as credible, despite uncertainties about implementation.

Transportation Sector Boom and Bust Cycle

The immediate impact on logistics has been dramatic. China's international cargo flights have hit levels not seen since March 2023, with three consecutive weeks exceeding 3,400 flights. The Ministry of Transport reports 3,485 flights last week alone, marking a post-pandemic high. However, this surge comes with a caveat - freight demand is expected to plummet once the frontloading period ends. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, notes that while carriers are busy, they're not yet overwhelmed, suggesting that industry preparation and capacity additions may prevent extreme rate spikes through year-end.

Economic Ripple Effects

The broader economic implications of this import surge are complex and potentially concerning. Barclays projects that a 30% tariff increase on Chinese goods could cap China's economic growth at 4% in 2025, while simultaneously affecting U.S. inflation and consumer prices. Domestic manufacturers relying on Chinese components, like Oklahoma-based Simple Modern, face increasing uncertainty. CEO Mike Beckham's observation about companies shipping "as much as they can right now" highlights the strategic dilemma facing businesses - whether to absorb higher inventory costs now or risk paying substantial tariffs later.

Political Strategy and Economic Reality

Trump's approach appears to blend negotiating tactics from his first administration with new policy objectives. His linkage of tariffs to specific policy goals - particularly stopping the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigration - suggests these measures are intended as leverage rather than purely economic policy. Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist George Saravelos identifies Mexico, Vietnam, and Canada as the countries most affected by these measures, indicating a broader impact on global supply chains than previous tariff rounds.

The most significant difference from Trump's first term may be the timing and scope of these announcements. By telegraphing these moves before taking office, he's triggered a massive pre-implementation response from global markets. This early warning has allowed companies to prepare, potentially blunting the immediate economic impact of the tariffs themselves while creating a different set of challenges - notably, the risk of oversupply and subsequent demand crashes in various sectors.

As 2024 draws to a close, the global trade system finds itself caught between immediate adaptation and long-term uncertainty. Companies are making significant bets on inventory accumulation, while logistics providers brace for both the current surge and its inevitable reversal. The coming months will test the resilience of global supply chains and the ability of businesses to navigate what promises to be a complex and volatile trade environment under the incoming administration.

Abraham Accords 2.0 Coming?

_{By: Arthur Lindh, Political Analyst & Contributor for Atlas}

A truce between Israel and Hezbollah was declared by President Joe Biden, ending almost a year of bloody fighting along the Israel-Lebanon border. Commencing on November 27, 2024, at 4:00 AM local time, the ceasefire represents a significant diplomatic victory for the outgoing Biden presidency. With the accord, one of Lebanon's most devastating wars in recent decades should be resolved, and there is some hope for broader regional peace.

In order to make the necessary preparations for a lasting peace, the agreement calls for a 60-day halt in hostilities. Hezbollah will deploy north of the Litani River as Israel withdraws its troops from Lebanese territory, creating a 30-kilometer buffer zone from the Israeli border. Several UN personnel will support the Lebanese Army as it takes over security duties in southern Lebanon. Together with France, a U.S.-led oversight body will oversee compliance with the agreement's provisions. Crucially, Hezbollah's border-front military facilities will not be rebuilt, and arms transfers to terrorist groups in the area are prohibited.

Impact and Political Dynamics The ceasefire follows 13 months of cross-border hostilities that significantly affected both Lebanon and Israel. Over 3,700 Lebanese fatalities occurred, with approximately 16,000 individuals injured. More than one million Lebanese residents were displaced, along with the evacuation of some 60,000 Israelis along the border. The economy of Lebanon has sustained significant harm, with the World Bank predicting losses to surpass $8.5 billion. The ceasefire is anticipated to enable the repatriation of displaced persons and initiate the challenging process of reconstructing ravaged areas.

The accord embodies intricate political motivations on various fronts. The Biden administration enhances the president's diplomatic legacy as his term approaches conclusion, emphasizing the United States' position as a principal mediator in Middle Eastern crises. The agreement affords President-elect Donald Trump stability during the transition, establishing a basis for ongoing involvement in the region. Simultaneously, the ceasefire highlights persistent regional tensions, since it fails to resolve the distinct and intensifying crisis in Gaza, where hostilities between Israel and Hamas continue unabated. President Biden stated optimism that the accord might function as a precursor to more extensive peace measures.

Challenges and International Response Although the agreement has been lauded as a milestone, considerable challenges persist. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that any violation by Hezbollah would provoke "decisive" military retribution, underscoring the tenuousness of the truce. Tensions have emerged around the utilization of Israeli drones for surveillance of Lebanese land, a step that Lebanese officials assert was not included in the deal. The ongoing fighting in Gaza persists as a substantial impediment to attaining greater regional stability.

The international world has predominantly endorsed the ceasefire, perceiving it as a measure to mitigate bloodshed in the unstable region. President Biden asserted, "This agreement represents not merely a cessation of hostilities but an opportunity to restore trust and establish the groundwork for a more secure future." UN Secretary-General António Guterres conveyed hope regarding the prospects for enduring stability. Nonetheless, skepticism endures, notably due to the history of violated ceasefires in the region and uncertainties surrounding Hezbollah's commitment to adhere to the terms, especially with disarming near the border.

The success of the ceasefire will hinge on efficient implementation, mutual restraint, and international support. The accord presents Lebanon with an opportunity to recuperate from significant losses and reaffirm its sovereignty in the southern region. The removal of Hezbollah forces from the border region offers Israel an immediate security respite. Should the truce endure, it may provide a framework for resolving additional problems in the region, such as the persistent Gaza crisis.

The Biden administration's capacity to facilitate this accord underscores the persistent significance of U.S. diplomatic involvement in the Middle East, notwithstanding the transition to a new administration. Despite ongoing problems, the ceasefire signifies a critical chance for de-escalation and underscores the efficacy of diplomacy in addressing deeply rooted disputes.

Stories you may have missed.

• Treasury urging lawmakers to free up IRS money

• Trudeau Meets Trump in Mar-a-Lago

• U.S. Election - Implications for the Middle East

Interested in more from Atlas?

We are a team of intelligence professionals and technology entrepreneurs. We are on the path to make open-source intelligence, open source. If you want to be updated on our progress, subscribe to our update email list below.

If you'd like to get involved with Atlas, please contact us with your experience or ideas. If you're a solid fit, we'll be in touch.

Advertise with us || Contact Us

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. ©2024 Atlas.1A