Good morning, and welcome to (A)Political. We're now part II in the political hangover stage of the political cycle as there are still US House seats up for grabs. Despite it being more than 17 days past election day, there are still 3 house races left to be called across 2 states as of Friday evening (barring any further recounts).  The shake up for the 119th Congress is still on! 

We are still waiting... The US House race is still being counted weeks after polls have closed. Iowa and California have red seats still being decided according to the Associated Press. However, it is now certain that Mike Johnson and other senior Republican leaders will have the slimmest of margins to work with come January. 

What the US is doing with nukes has now fundamentally shifted. The dynamics between the cold war and the 21st century foreign policy are radically different, and our second story of the day breaks down the potential outcomes, which leaves more questions than answers. 

Matt Gaetz is out as the US Attorney General nomination race. Hours after his noted departure, Trump announced former Florida AG Pam Bondi as the replacement. The journey to January is only getting spicier! 

Lastly, we have some awesome merch coming out soon! Keep an eye out for an email for when it comes out and the exclusive drop we have!

Lets get into it! 

We Are Still Waiting...

Despite the election for President being called within 24 hours of polls closing, we're 17 days removed from November 5th, and still have three undecided races. Iowa's 1st District and a pair of California races will put the final punctuation mark on this year's House battle, even though Republicans have already clinched control.

A Nail-Biter in Iowa

Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks is clinging to a literal 800-vote lead over Democrat Christina Bohannan - with over 412,000 total votes cast (.2% differential). Miller-Meeks has been running around southeastern Iowa preaching about border security and inflation, while Bohannan bet her chips on healthcare and farm aid. In places like Iowa City and Davenport, both messages found their audience and the final turnout leans the incumbent's way. It's worth noting that Meeks has had brushes with defeat, as she won the second closest House race in US history with her win over Rita Hart by 6 votes in 2020. 

California's Valley Showdown

Incumbent Republican John Duarte is ahead by exactly 210 votes - out of more than 200,000 cast. He's sitting at 101,824 to Democrat Adam Gray's 101,614 as of Friday evening. This house race is likely to be the a repeat of the closest in California's history as the same Duarte won against opponent Adam Gray by 564 votes in 2022. The two biggest concerns for voters in California were the Economy and Immigration. The third biggest concern paled in comparison with only 11% of voters believing that Climate is the biggest concern for their vote. 

Orange County's Photo Finish

Then there's California's 45th, where Democrat Derek Tran has edged ahead of Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by a miniscule 480 votes - 156,576 to 156,096. Little Saigon's voters have turned this into a real battleground, with Asian-American voters making up nearly a third of the district. Steel's been talking up small business and economic recovery, while Tran's focused on housing costs and environmental issues. Neither message has managed to overwhelmingly break this deadlock.

What It All Means

The House races matter now more than anytime in recent history with such thin margins. With only one confirmed republican vote to spare so far, it would be that much more breathing room for presumed Speaker of the House Mike Johnson if two or three more republicans ended up getting the nod of their voters. Margins of fewer than 1,500 votes total across all three districts combined have set up a battle for the ages. In a House where every vote counts, these razor-thin margins will most likely determine how much of a Trump agenda can get squeezed through the Speaker's gavel. 

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