Good morning, and welcome to (A)Political. We're officially in the political hangover stage of the political cycle following the presidential vote coming to a close. Even with an electoral landslide for Donald Trump, and Republican control of the Senate,  there are still question marks on the how the US House will look for 2025. Despite it being more than 10 days past election day, there are still 6 house races left to be called across 4 states as of Friday evening.

Talks of peace between Ukraine and Russia are now amplifying with Donald Trump coming into the picture. Peace talks were considered "forbidden" to discuss just 12 months ago, with Ukrainian President Zelensky stating that he would not hold the thought of peace as long as Putin is in power. The tone has markedly shifted since Trump's election last week, with even Zelensky stating his open attitude for how the war could come to an end. 

The US House race is still being counted after polls being closed for several days. Alaska, Iowa, and California all have lean red seats still up for grabs according to the Associated Press. The slimmest of majorities await House Speaker Mike Johnson in 2025 as power to pass or kill a bill could be determined by a single vote. 

Newly appointed Trump adviser Elon Musk met with Iran's UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani for an hour-long discussion at an undisclosed location in New York. The meeting, which occurred shortly after Trump's election victory, marks a potential shift in U.S.-Iran relations as the president-elect prepares to return to office. 

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Lets get into it! 

Shifting to a Simmer

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has executed a significant reversal in his stance toward peace negotiations following Donald Trump's election victory. In a departure from his previous position, Zelensky stated that "the war will end sooner" under the Trump administration. This represents a dramatic shift from his earlier refusal to consider negotiations while Vladimir Putin remains in power.

Security Over Territory

A fundamental change in Ukraine's negotiating position has emerged. Senior Ukrainian officials, including Roman Kostenko, chairman of the Parliament's Defense and Intelligence Committee, now emphasize security guarantees over territorial boundaries. "Talks should be based on guarantees," Kostenko stated. "For Ukraine, nothing is more important." This shift comes as Ukrainian forces face increasing pressure on the eastern front.

Territorial Considerations

While Ukraine maintains its official borders based on its 1991 declaration of independence, there's growing recognition that the reality on the ground may differ. Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. Zelensky has carefully framed potential territorial compromises, stating that "legally no one will recognize the occupied territories as belonging to other countries," suggesting a possible path to a deal without formal territorial concessions.

German-Russian Dialogue Resumes

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin have scheduled their first phone conversation in nearly two years. Their discussion, described as "frank" and "detailed," concluded with an agreement to maintain future contact and included Russia expressing openness to peace talks based on proposals announced by their Foreign Ministry in June.

European Realignment

The timing of these diplomatic initiatives directly correlates with Trump's election victory. Scholz's decision to engage with Putin comes after his conversation with President-elect Trump, where both leaders discussed working "toward a return to peace in Europe." This shift suggests European leaders are recalibrating their approach to the conflict as Washington's stance evolves under new leadership.

Trump's Approach and Influence

The president-elect's team has indicated plans to pressure Kiev to pause NATO membership aspirations. Trump's position on Ukraine has been most clearly articulated in his July Fox News interview, where he stated, "I would tell Zelensky, no more - you got to make a deal," and "I would tell Putin, If you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot." This stance appears to be accelerating peace talk considerations across all parties involved.

Challenges and Complexities

The path to negotiations faces several significant hurdles. The ongoing situation in Kursk, where Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Russian territory, presents an immediate challenge to any ceasefire discussions. The establishment of demilitarized zones and their impact on economic recovery remains a critical concern for Ukrainian officials. International security guarantees continue to be a central point of contention, particularly given Ukraine's previous experiences with ceasefire agreements in 2014 and 2015. Public opinion within Ukraine has shifted notably, with recent polling showing 32% support for territorial compromises, up from 19% last year.

Ukraine's Peace Formula

Ukraine has developed a ten-point Peace Formula as a starting position for negotiations. The proposal includes demands for full withdrawal and war crimes prosecution, though these remain contentious issues. More promising progress has been made on prisoner of war exchanges, nuclear site safety measures, and guarantees for Black Sea commercial shipping, with approximately 80 countries endorsing these aspects of the plan.

International Involvement

Multiple peace initiatives have emerged on the international stage, with China, Brazil, and Turkey each proposing different approaches to resolution. Zelensky has demonstrated increasing diplomatic flexibility by welcoming Chinese involvement and indicating openness to Russian participation in future Peace Formula discussions. However, as former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk noted, "Whoever is in a winning position sets the terms," highlighting the complex relationship between battlefield positions and diplomatic leverage.

The path to peace appears increasingly complex but more urgent as military realities on the ground evolve and international pressure for negotiations builds. With Trump's impending presidency and shifting diplomatic dynamics, the conflict may be entering a new phase focused more on negotiation than continuation of hostilities. 

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