(A)Political - April 18th

Good morning everyone,

It’s been a historic week on Middle Eastern affairs. Let’s jump in!

President Trump followed the Iranian Foreign Minister’s announcement of the Strait of Hormuz opening with several posts alluding to victory in Iran. DOJ launches criminal investigation into now resigned congressman Eric Swalwell. The United States has extended an oil waver for countries like India to buy Russian oil without running afoul of the U.S.

• Trump Takes Victory Lap Over Hormuz Opening

• DOJ Begins Criminal Investigation On Former House Rep Eric Swalwell

• U.S. Renews Oil Waiver Relating To Russian Oil Sanctions

Trump Takes Victory Lap Over Hormuz Opening

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump announced Friday that Iran had conceded to nearly all American demands to dismantle its nuclear program, setting the stage for a weekend round of talks that he said should move quickly toward a final accord.

In a string of social media posts and interviews, Trump said Washington would cooperate with Tehran at what he described as a "leisurely pace" to retrieve the stockpile of highly enriched uranium buried beneath last year's B-2 strike sites. He added that no American ground forces would be required for the operation, and that Iran would receive no compensation in exchange for what he characterized as an unlimited halt to all nuclear activities.

The announcement coincided with Tehran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic. Trump claimed Iran had further committed to never again closing the waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas passed before the war began February 28.

Nuclear material recovery takes center stage

The centerpiece of Trump's announced framework is the removal of roughly 940 pounds of highly enriched uranium, at levels close to weapons grade, that the International Atomic Energy Agency estimates remain buried under the debris of last year's combined U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign.

Trump said American crews would enter alongside Iranian personnel with heavy excavation equipment to unearth the material and transport it to the United States. He told CBS News the project would not require U.S. ground personnel in any combat role.

Iranian negotiators have previously floated a different approach, offering to dilute or otherwise render the material unusable inside the country, paired with a moratorium on further high-level enrichment lasting three to five years. Trump rejected any time-limited arrangement outright, telling Bloomberg, "No years, unlimited," in response to Vice President JD Vance's earlier proposal of a 20-year ceiling on Iranian enrichment.

Outstanding American demands that Iran curtail its ballistic missile program and sever support for regional proxy forces were not addressed in Friday's announcements by either capital.

Tehran pushes back on scope of agreement

Iranian officials were publicly dismissive of Trump's characterization of the talks. A Foreign Ministry statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB cautioned the public against being misled by American rhetoric and said no new agreement had been reached.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi framed the strait's reopening in far narrower terms, saying transit would be permitted only along an Iran-approved corridor and only through the expiration of the current two-week ceasefire, which runs until April 22. He tied the decision to a separate 10-day ceasefire brokered between Israel and Lebanon earlier in the week, a condition Tehran had pressed for before offering concessions.

A spokesman for President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed Trump's public posture as an attempt to strip Iranians of pride in what he called the country's defensive achievements.

Trump also denied reporting that Washington would release $20 million in frozen Iranian assets in return for the uranium stockpile, telling Reuters no money was changing hands. Iran, for its part, continues to demand full sanctions relief and restitution for war damages.

Markets fall but shipping remains wary

News of the reopening pushed Brent crude down more than 10 percent in futures trading, settling under $89 per barrel. Asian energy shortages and elevated fuel prices in several regions had followed Tehran's February clampdown on the waterway.

Actual shipping traffic lagged behind the announcement. Maritime tracking services reported no meaningful increase in transits through the strait in the hours after Iran's declaration. Roughly 832 tankers and cargo vessels remain stranded in or near the chokepoint, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

Brett Erickson, managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the practical gap between diplomatic statements and resumed commerce would be significant. He noted that the strait normally handles more than 100 vessel crossings per day, a volume no single designated corridor with Iranian authorization requirements can match. Captains and shipping companies, he said, weigh crew safety above any diplomatic announcement.

BIMCO, the international shipping association, declined to endorse the reopening. Its chief safety and security officer, Jakob Larsen, said the strait could not yet be declared safe for transit.

Blockade continues as Europe positions for a maritime role

Even as Tehran reopened the strait, Trump said the U.S. Navy would keep its blockade of Iranian ports in place until a final agreement is signed. Defense officials said 19 ships had been turned back since the blockade took effect Monday.

Trump again aimed sharp criticism at European allies for declining to join the military campaign last month, writing that NATO had offered assistance only after the Hormuz situation eased. He said he had told the alliance to stay away.

At a coalition meeting in Paris, President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomed the opening while pressing for a durable framework to guarantee freedom of navigation. Starmer said any proposal must be both lasting and workable. Merz offered European mine-clearance vessels, noting the continent's expertise in that area, though he said a legal basis for such a mission would be required.

A diplomat familiar with the Paris talks said Trump's announcements blindsided European participants, who were meeting on the strait when the president's claims began circulating. Military chiefs from non-belligerent states are expected to convene next week at the British command headquarters in Northwood to weigh their potential role in escorting commercial traffic once the war formally ends.

The next round of U.S.-Iranian negotiations is expected in Islamabad, though Trump said Friday he had not yet chosen a U.S. delegation leader. The initial round, held last weekend, was led by Vance with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also at the table.

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