(A)Political - April 11th

Good morning everyone,

It definitely hasn’t been a slow week. Let’s get into it!

Vice President Vance is making all the stops to ensure no war breaks out between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. government is planning on a mandatory military draft rule to be on the books by the end of this year. Representative Swalwell is facing a large amount of heat for sexual allegations as his bid for the governor bid shakes up.

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VP Vance Sues For Iranian Peace

_{By: Atlas}

Vice President JD Vance boarded Air Force Two on Friday morning bound for Islamabad, where he will lead the American delegation in the first face-to-face negotiations between the United States and Iran since the war broke out on February 28. He told reporters before departing that he expected the talks to be "positive" — but offered a warning alongside the optimism.

"If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we're certainly willing to extend the open hand," Vance said. "If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive."

He will be joined by President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff. On the Iranian side, the delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Bager Qalibaf. Pakistan, which brokered the two-week ceasefire that made the talks possible, is hosting the negotiations and said Friday it would issue visas on arrival to journalists covering the event.

The Saturday talks carry enormous weight. The ceasefire, agreed to on April 7 just 90 minutes before Trump's deadline to escalate strikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure, has already begun to wobble. Disagreements over the Strait of Hormuz and Israel's continued strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon have emerged as immediate sticking points, and the publicly stated positions of Washington and Tehran remain far apart on the issues that matter most.

Why Iran Wanted Vance

Tehran's remaining leadership quietly sought Vance's involvement in the negotiations, according to multiple sources familiar with the diplomatic back-channel. Iranian officials view the vice president as the most anti-war figure in Trump's inner circle and believe he is the most likely senior American to pursue a deal in genuine good faith.

That perception tracks with Vance's political brand. He was among the most vocal skeptics of foreign military intervention before joining the ticket, and his reputation as a restraint-minded voice has followed him into office. Sources said Qalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker, was among those who advocated for Vance to take a leading role. Some White House officials had themselves identified Qalibaf as a pragmatic counterpart who might be amenable to compromise.

The White House pushed back on the characterization. One official called it "laughable" to suggest Iran had a preference for Vance and denied anyone in his orbit was thinking about the political implications of the talks. But a separate White House official acknowledged that the Iranians had in fact indicated they wanted Vance involved, without offering a reason.

Vance himself was measured when asked about it. "I don't know that," he said Wednesday while traveling in Hungary. "I would be surprised if that was true."

Pressed on his role more broadly, he was self-deprecating. "I mean, you know, my key role was I sat on the phone a lot," he said. "I answered a lot of phone calls. I made a lot of phone calls."

The Sticking Points

The two-week ceasefire was supposed to create space for exactly these kinds of talks. But the pause has been anything but clean.

Iran's 10-point proposal — which Trump described as a "workable basis" for negotiations — includes demands that the United States guarantee non-aggression, accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment, lift all sanctions, withdraw combat forces from the region, and cease hostilities on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's Supreme National Security Council characterized the ceasefire itself as "an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat" for the United States.

Washington's position is considerably narrower. The administration has said further uranium enrichment is a non-starter. And Vance said this week that the United States never agreed to extend the ceasefire to cover Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon — directly contradicting Iran's interpretation of the deal.

"We never made that promise," Vance told reporters Wednesday. "We never indicated that was going to be the case."

That disagreement has already produced consequences. Iranian state media reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps closed the Strait of Hormuz again in response to continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The White House called those reports false and "completely unacceptable." Trump warned Iran on Thursday against charging tolls on ships attempting to pass through the waterway, which remains effectively shut despite the ceasefire.

The Broader Picture

The war has left the Middle East destabilized and alliances frayed. Iran's military infrastructure sits in ruins and its missile arsenal is broadly depleted, but the country has found unexpected leverage through its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil. The threat alone has been enough to keep most commercial shipping away.

Oil prices have surged since the war began. Brent crude rose from roughly $70 per barrel in late February to over $119 at its peak. U.S. gas prices have climbed to about $4.15 a gallon, up from just under $3 before the conflict. Consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in March from a year earlier, the sharpest annual increase since May 2024.

The humanitarian costs extend well beyond economics. In Lebanon, the war between Israel and Hezbollah — which Iran insists should be covered by any ceasefire — has displaced more than a million people and killed nearly 1,900. The conflict has also strained NATO, with Trump deriding allies as "cowards" and slamming the alliance as "a paper tiger" after member nations declined to assist in operations against Iran.

Trump has conceded privately in recent conversations with advisers that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen soon, according to a senior White House official, though he posted publicly on Thursday that oil would be flowing again quickly.

The Political Calculus

Vance arrives in Islamabad as an early frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, and the outcome of these talks could shape his political trajectory. A successful negotiation would bolster his credentials as a statesman capable of ending an unpopular war. A failure — or a drawn-out process that keeps gas prices elevated and the conflict unresolved heading into November's midterms — could tie him more firmly to a war that polling shows most Americans believe went too far.

"If this peace negotiation goes well and the result is one that's popular, it could help Vance's image," said Stephen Wertheim, a historian and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. "But I think there's also some danger for Vance that he becomes more the face of the war."

The White House has been eager to position Vance as a central figure in the diplomatic effort. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that Vance has "played a very significant and a key role in this since the very beginning." The mood inside the administration, however, is one of skepticism about whether Tehran is prepared to make the concessions Washington considers essential — particularly on enrichment and the Strait.

The talks begin Saturday. The ceasefire expires in roughly 10 days. What happens in Islamabad this weekend will determine whether those 10 days lead to something durable or simply set the clock for another round of threats and deadlines.

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